The forecast season is well underway. Forbes contributor Jim Handy has compiled this useful list of where they stand as of now.
% Source
0-5 Jim Handy from Objective Analysis
1.7 Duncan Meldrum, IHS
2 Morris Chang, TSMC
2.2 Gartner Dataquest
6 Handel Jones, IBS
7 Bill McLean, IC Insights
8 Malcolm Penn, Future Horizons.
The high roller, Malcolm Penn, pointed out at IFS 2012 yesterday that growth could be as high as 20% if the world’s macroeconomic problems get sorted out.
Penn points out that the biggest barrier to growth – manufacturing over-capacity leading to plummeting prices – is not going to happen due to the historically low levels of capital investment for the last few years.
Meanwhile the historical trend of 11% annual unit growth persists.
So the rush of consumer optimism which would follow some good macro-economic news could carry a 20% spurt to the chip industry.
Do consumers want tablets and smartphones?
Is the Pope a catholic?
