The LED lighting supply chain is rather fragmented, noted Klaus Vamberszky, Executive VP Technology for lighting company Zumtobel Group. In his keynote speech, the manager characterized cost as the main factor for the market development. According to his analysis, the LED account for 60 % of the costs of a complete luminaire, 20 % percent to the driver electronics. The remaining 20 % are associated to optics and mechanics of the luminaires. There is a great potential for the price to be reduced, he said, because he expects the LED costs to fall by an order of ten within the next decade.
One of the factors that help to drive the LED price down might be a consolidation of the supply chain. Up to now, the LED lighting is "even more fragmented than the supply chain for LED-backlit TV screens", he said.
Despite the prospect of falling prices which in turn certainly would stimulate demand, there are also limiting factors for the LED lighting industry: "You can't generate demand in general lighting", Vamberszky said. "Lighting is part of a building - no one builds a new office just for the sake of lighting". Another retarding factor for the market, however, could be removed more easily: The way the industry is using its intellectual property. "So far the lighting industry has used its IP in a very defensive way", the technology manager noted. However, things are about to change and the industry has started to use its IP more strategically.
Like every industry in its infancy, LED lighting also faces a number of challenges. One of them is thermal management. This topic will become even more important, Vamberszky predicted. "Thermal management is key to successful LED products", he said.
Other challenges include the efficacy in terms of lumens per watt - the main topic for more or less every LED designer across the world. Another challenge is standards at every level of the LED and luminary value chain. In this context, Vamberszky praised the upcoming Zhaga standards which aim at improving the interchangeability of LED modules from different vendors. These standards, driven by the consortium bearing the same name, will help luminary manufacturers to order LED modules in large quantities which in turn will drive prices down and enable luminary manufacturers to pursuit a second-source strategy. Vamberszky dispelled fears that standards could limit LED and luminary designer's liberty. "There will remain lots of space for differentiation", he said.
